Top NFL Prop Bets for the 2020 Season
With the NFL Draft in the rear-view mirror, NFL teams around the league are trying to bring in undrafted free agents and figure out what potential holes they need to patch as the offseason continues. With a ton of uncertainty in the mix as to how things will play out for the offseason and fans looking forward to the schedule release next week, there’s still plenty of things to take into consideration to whet the palate of fans and bettors alike. One early chunk of potential interesting things to look into dropped on Wednesday.
Caesar’s Sportsbook dropped a series of potential prop bets for the NFL season, giving bettors something to get an early jump on for the season, which is still more than four months away from week 1 of the regular season. There are a slew of over/under options to look at as well as normal prop bets for how likely teams are to make the postseason or win their respective divisions. Let’s take a look at a few of the early favorites for what I think are solid options to pick up some potential wins when all is said and done.
Lamar Jackson Under 999.5 Rushing Yards (-110): Jackson set the world on fire last season in his first full year as a starter under center for the Ravens. He won the MVP after leading the league with 36 touchdown passes against six interceptions in addition to running for 1,206 yards and seven scores on the ground. That total set a NFL record for rushing yards by a QB. Teams will have more film on the former Heisman winner this season and can game plan things a little better. The three previous times a QB ran for at least 900 yards in a season, they were held to under 600 the following year. Throw in that Jackson doesn’t expect to run as much and you have to lean toward this one staying under the number. Jackson, in a statement last week, said:
"I doubt that I am going to be carrying the ball a lot going further into the future, because we have dynamic running backs and even more receivers. We are going to be pretty good, and I don't think I'll be running a lot." Saving a couple dozen or more hits from running could be beneficial as the Ravens don’t want to see the reigning MVP out of the mix for any amount of time.
Tom Brady Over 3999.5 Passing Yards: Brady threw for 4,057 yards for the Patriots last season with Julian Edelman, running back James White and a cast of unappealing options to work with in the passing game. He now goes to Tampa Bay where he gets to work with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who both went over 1,100 yards last season. The Bucs also have some guy named Gronk to be in the tight end mix along with, at least for the moment, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Seeing that Bruce Arians loves to throw the ball and Jameis Winston threw for 5,109 yards last season, you have to lean toward the over here.
Yes to the Bills Making the Playoffs (-200): Buffalo was 10-6 last season and made the playoffs for the second time in three years. With a top-five defense and an offense that added weapons like Stefon Diggs and Zack Moss, the Bills are a solid team. With Brady no longer in New England for the first time in two decades, the Bills look poised to claim the throne in the AFC East, which would send them to the postseason.
Kyler Murray Over 4049.5 Passing Yards (-110): Murray threw for 3,722 yards as a rookie last season with the Cardinals, despite the team lacking a solid third receiver. This offseason, the team brought in DeAndre Hopkins from Houston in one of the most head-scratching trades of the offseason, at least if you’re a Texans fan. Adding Hopkins to the ageless Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, along with the versatility of Kenyan Drake, should help him make a leap in year two with the team.
Kirk Cousins Under 3831.5 Passing Yards (-110): Cousins threw for only 3,603 yards last season as the Vikings relied on the ground game with Dalvin Cook. With Stefon Diggs (63 receptions, 1130 yards, six TD) now in Buffalo, that leaves Adam Thielen along with tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. as the true viable options, along with Cook. Justin Jefferson could be a solid receiver but with the offseason up in the air, it might take time for him to get up to speed. Lean toward the under here.
Deshaun Watson Under 3799.5 Passing Yards (-110): Watson finished with 3,852 yards through the air last season and that was WITH DeAndre Hopkins in the fold. Will Fuller V can’t stay healthy and the rest of the group is inconsistent at best. Unless David Johnson gets back to staying on the field and becoming a viable target in the passing game, you can’t count on big numbers here.
Michael Thomas Over 1449.5 Receiving Yards (-110): Thomas racked up a league-record 149 catches last year for 1,725 yards. In 2018, he had 125 catches for 1,405 yards. With Drew Brees back under center for another year and the Saints’ explosive offense plus a reliable option in Emmanuel Sanders to take double-teams away, Thomas should hit the 1,500-yard mark this season to go over the mark.
Julio Jones Over 1333.5 Receiving Yards (-110): Jones has gone over this mark in each of the last six seasons, including a 1,394-yard showing in 2019 despite missing a game. Given the way that the Falcons love to throw the ball and that he’s the team’s top receiving option, look for this to go over the total.
Saints to Win NFC South (-105): Even with Brady running the offense for Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers still have work to do in order to be a threat. They could be a wild card if the defense steps up. Carolina and Atlanta are in various stages of rebuilding and it’s going to take time to fix those problems. With Brees running things for the Saints, and the addition of Jameis Winston to back him up, New Orleans is in good shape to take the NFC South title.
Minnesota Vikings to Win NFC North (+170): The NFC North is going to be an interesting division this season. Detroit is trying to retool and find viable options on the fly at this stage of things. Green Bay has their own issues after drafting Jordan Love as the apparent heir to Aaron Rodgers. The Packers still have a lack of playmaking options besides Davante Adams in the passing game. Chicago is trying to figure out how to build their offense as they have holes all over the place to the point they acquired Nick Foles and his steep contract to battle Mitch Trubisky. Minnesota has problems, but they had 15 draft picks and they still have capable pieces to work with on both sides of the ball. The Vikings get the nod here.
