UFC Vegas 5: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan predictions, preview and odds

Originally set to feature women’s bantamweight contenders, UFC Vegas 5 now offers a revamped headline shared by rated middleweights Derek Brunson(20-7) and Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0).Brunson carries two straight wins into the Performance Center Saturday night opposite his steamrolling opponent.

It speaks to Shahbazyan’s complete Zuffa dominance that he’s installed at -330 odds vs. war-tested Brunson (+270). After taking stoppage losses in 2018 vs. Israel Adesanya and Jacare Souza, 36-year-old Brunson owns recent decision wins over Elias Theodorou and Ian Heinisch. However, rising Shabazyan is 4-0 inside Octagon limits quickly stopping Brad Tavares, Jack Marshman and Charles Byrd in succession.

In fact, just one of 22-year-old “Golden Boy’s” eleven paid assignments have survived round one. A powerful striker with length and submission skills, Shahbazyan is on the fast track to UFC superstardom. Conversely, Brunson’s division II wrestling pedigree and seasoned fight awareness will likely pale when facing his buzzsaw challenge Saturday night.

A case could be made for wily Brunson dragging Shahbazyan into uncharted waters and capitalizing with something the touted novice hasn’t seen. However, the most logical outcome is Shahbazyan giving Brunson a sixth TKO loss.

Shahbazyan boasts nine TKO wins and one submission. His strengths play directly off the weakness of Brunson's chin.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan by TKO (-140).

After news recently broke detailing Irene Aldana's positive COVID-19 test, top-ten flyweights Joanne Calderwood (14-4) and Jennifer Maia (17-6-1) became the event's top female draw. This new configuration leaves former UFC champion Holly Holm off the card.

That noted, no. 3 Calderwood (-190) has won three of four, split decisioning Andrea Lee last September. No. 6 Maia (+165) is coming off a loss vs. Katlyn Chookagian following a 2-1 UFC start. Most notably, the 31-year-old Brazilian holds two wins vs. Roxanne Modafferi. Considering her Zuffa defeats to Chookagian and Liz Carmouche, Maia enters Saturday at +158 dog odds against -150 Calderwood.

Claderwood is taking a big gamble with this fight as she was slated to face the currently injured Valentina Schevchenko for 125 lb. gold. Not one to sit idle, the 34-year-old welcomes her former Invicta FC Flyweight belt holder foe into a pivotal contest. With names running short for Schevchenko, Saturday's winning side between Calderwood and Maia could produce the next flyweight title challenger.

Look for a close fight between these high IQ veterans. Each fell to Chookagian, however, due to her aggressive, well-rounded Muay Thai style and ground game, take Maia with the small upset over the less explosive, slightly older Calderwood.

The Pick: Jennifer Maia by Decision

Experienced Octagon welterweights convene for fight #3 as Vicente Luque (18-7-1) looks to rise the 170 pound ranks vs. rock solid Randy Brown (12-3). After splitting his TUF appearances, Luque has compiled a sneaky good 11-3 Octagon record while stopping 10 high-level assignments during that time. It's easy to forget "The Silent Assasian" is just 28-years-old and entering his athletic prime. That stated, the majority of Luque's (-185) paid mishaps came during his early 20's. Since physically maturing, the Brazilian is 7-2 during a key nine-fight stretch.

Meanwhile, 30-year-old Brown (+160) has stopped his last two opponents and boasts a 6-3 UFC record. In those nine fights "Rude Boy" owns four stoppages. Although, Brown was halted by Luque victim Niko Price and decisioned by common opponent Belal Muhammad. Overall, the Massachusetts native has been stopped twice during his Zuffa tenure.

Taking those stoppages into account, expect Luque to overcome a two-inch reach defecit by wading in with explosive punches to set up a submission over his game opponent. Numbers don't lie. And hard data shows Luque owns 10 professional TKO's and six submissions. Brown is a tough assignment, but he's flawed enough for Vicente Luque to put away.

The Pick: Luque by Stoppage

Fight four pits Bobby Green (25-10-1) vs. scrappy Lando Vannata (11-4-2) in a rematch three years in the making. The cage warriors fought to a draw in 2017.

Win, lose or draw, it feels like 33-year-old Green (+130) has been around much longer than his nine year UFC & Strikeforce tenure. A kickboxer by trade, "King" has overcome cornerstone MMA names Jacob Volkman, Pat Healy, Josh Thomson and most recently Clay Guida. Never able to claim elite status, however, Saturday is an appreciation fight for the career martial artist.

And while Bobby Green is reaping late rewards for early memorable wars, Lando Vannata (-150) is a quality 28-year-old cage gladiator looking to show his evolution over a slightly faded former opponent. While Vannata stands 3-4-2 vs. Octagon fare, his recent win over Yancy Medeiros showed considerable growth.

That growth will vault prime Vannata past durable, yet visibly slowing Green. There wasn't much left from "The King" as he survived Clay Guida's ghost recently while each man fought from their last MMA legs.

Look for a spirited Vannata performance against his old rival.

The Pick: Vannata by Decision

Opening UFC Vegas 5 action pits Kevin Holland(17-5) vs. Trevin Giles (12-2).

As both men advance into their UFC tenure, Holland carries greater odds (-190) and momentum after stopping Anthony Hernandez with a vicious knee this June. Having won four of his past five Octagon appearances, "Trailblazer" appears ready to build off the back of Giles to perhaps break into the Middleweight rankings and gain loftier considerations.

Of course, Trevin Giles (+165) will prove live competition after edging James Krause to break a two-fight losing streak where he fell to the guilotine choke. Now is a perfect time to mention Holland owns six paid submissions and eight TKO's. That noted, Giles' best chance is to outwrestle Holland and play the decision route.

It's also the perfect time time to mention Holland owns a massive seven-inch reach edge -and far deeper bag of MMA tools. Yes, the stockier Giles has a clear victory path if he can outmuscle Holland and avoid concussive strikes and crippling submissions. But, that's a lot to ask from a fighter still finding his jiu jitsu wares.

The Pick: Holland via Submission

Odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.com

Check back soon for UFC Vegas 5 undercard picks.